As the bright lights fall on Broadway for the Tony Awards on June 8, new research by a Bucknell University data science professor and a recent graduate presents a more sobering reality for investors in musicals, finding less than a quarter returned their full investment.

Professor Sam Gutekunst, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Assistant Professor of Data Science; and Christopher Kopac '25, business analytics from Ashburn, Va., are co-authors of a cover article summarizing their research in the current issue of Significance, a leading magazine for statistics and data analysis. Their study offers the most comprehensive public investigation to date of Broadway musical profitability.

Professor Sam Gutekunst (left) and Christopher Kopac ’25 (right) showcase the published article on their research during this year's Commencement. Photo provided by Gutekunst

"Broadway investing has long been seen as a high-risk venture, but most claims about success rates lacked auditable data," Gutekunst says. "We wanted to bring more transparency by using publicly available information to analyze which shows actually make money for their investors — and then by making our underlying data public."

The study, co-authored with Allan S. Detsky of the University of Toronto (both a Broadway producer and professor), analyzed every Broadway musical that opened between 2008 and 2017. The authors used weekly gross ticket sales, press-reported capitalization costs and other public data to determine which shows recouped their investments, which failed, and which remained ambiguous.

Their findings offer a timely counterpoint to the celebration of Broadway's biggest night. Just 21% to 25.6% of the studied musicals returned their full investment. Only eight of the shows in their study — including Hamilton, The Book of Mormon and Dear Evan Hansen — provided investors a realistic chance of doubling their money based solely on ticket sales.

"These results confirm what many suspected, but couldn't prove: the odds are long," Kopac says. "Investing in a Broadway musical is a high-risk endeavor like sports betting."

The research focused on shows that had time to complete their financial cycle and recoup before the COVID-19 shutdown in 2020. Nonprofit productions and those closed to outside investors were excluded to provide a more accurate look at commercial investment outcomes.

For 105 of the 133 shows, the authors found sufficient data to classify recoupment. For the remaining 28, they conducted extensive contextual research to make informed estimates. Their dataset, which is publicly available, also includes information about capitalizations and reported production costs.

"Even among successful shows, profitability often requires years of strong ticket sales," Gutekunst says. "Some shows recouped only after running for two or three years."

The study also highlights a key challenge for investors: once a show recoups, the share of profits returned to them shrinks, as royalty rates increase and the remainder is split with producers. For investors to double their money, the show's profits typically need to exceed three times its capitalization — a high bar that only a handful of musicals ever meet.

Still, the researchers say the goal of their work isn't to dissuade investment, but to provide clarity.

"There's nothing wrong with investing in a show because you love the art or want to be part of the process," Kopac says. "But from a fiscal perspective, it's important to know the odds — and now we do."

The article, Defying Gravity or Failing to Launch?, has been published online and will appear in the July 2025 issue of Significance.